Changes in rainfall patterns at Erbil station due to climate change

Abstract

       Climate change has become a major threat to populations due to global warming, caused by increased human activity resulting from the use of fossil fuels. This has led to a rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases, the primary cause of this phenomenon. Over the past few decades, the world has witnessed widespread and rapid climate changes affecting all climatic elements and phenomena, including rainfall, These changes, fluctuations, and spatial and temporal variations in recorded rainfall amounts have negatively impacted the climate of Iraq, and specifically the Erbil station, resulting in a decrease in rainfall. Therefore, the focus was on the general trend of rainfall characteristics at the Erbil station, using a graph and a general trend line for each month to determine whether this trend was upward or downward. This was demonstrated by studying the station's time series for the period (1990-2023), which revealed clear variations in rainfall trends in terms of temporal distribution, quantity, and intensity. It became evident that some of the last ten years witnessed a significant decrease in recorded rainfall amounts at the station, with 2023 recording an annual average of 7 mm.  The months saw negative changes, except for October, which recorded a positive change but with a low trend coefficient.