Analysis of Extreme Summer Temperatures in Iraq and Their Future Scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31185/lark.5055Keywords:
تغير المناخ، درجة الحرارة اليومية، فصل الصيف، مؤشرات التطرفAbstract
Climate change poses significant challenges to human health and the environment. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of extreme maximum and minimum temperature gradients during the summer season for both the present and the future. The analysis relies on daily data for the periods (1985-2020) and (2020-2050). Eight indices were used to measure thermal extremes, based on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the CORDEX project, with the selection of the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). Data from twelve points representing Iraqi stations were analyzed using linear regression. The results revealed an increase in both maximum and minimum temperature indices, with the minimum temperature rising more than the maximum temperature. The change in the minimum temperature index (TNx) was (0.47)°C per decade, compared to (0.37)°C per decade for the maximum temperature index. The northern and central regions showed the most significant changes. Furthermore, hot days and nights indices showed a decreasing trend of (-3.5) % for the cold nights index (TN10), while hot days and nights increased by (3.4) % per decade. Future projections (NOAA-GFDL-rcp4.5) aligned with the observed results, confirming the continued rise in temperatures for the period (2020-2050). The highest change was observed in the minimum temperature index (TNx), with a maximum future change of (1.5)°C per decade. The findings confirm that Iraq's climate is accelerating in the context of extreme events since the mid-1990s, which could lead to serious social and economic repercussions
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